Fact, Consideration, Deduction, Tasks – the Genesis of a Solid, Actionable Plan
By Tom Marazzo, Captain (Ret’d) Canadian Army
Recently I worked with a really great group of people who wanted to learn about military skills. From my perspective, as a 25-year former soldier, the most important skill I learned in the military was how to effectively plan, especially under duress.
There are myriad books about preparedness or “prepping”, but in my view, nobody is teaching people how to effectively plan properly. In my view, all other skills are secondary.
Leadership, in a battle context, is not about coming up with a clever plan to defeat your enemy. It’s not about having your starship surrounded by Romulan’s and coming up with an ingenious solution to save your ship. There are no Captain Kirk’s on the battlefield.
Planning takes place long before a battle begins and an intensive planning process takes place to pre-determine your decisions in the event that the enemy takes a course of action. Army commanders take decisions, that have been pre-planned given the pre-considered actions of the Enemy. We refer to them as Trigger points or Decision Points. For example, if the enemy does A, we will do A1. IF the enemy does B, we will do B1.
Note, these decisions are not made under duress and if the Commander is unable to communicate the decision, subordinate commanders can on their own initiative.
Most modern Armies follow a process called the Operational Planning Process or OPP, at a Battle Group of Brigade Level and with a team of several staff officers from each specialty trade. However, at a much lower level, leaders do an individual process called an “Estimate of the Situation”. This is typically done alone but with consultations from other specialists.
In essence, the OPP is a higher scale Estimate. However, both processes are based on deductive reasoning meant to derive a detailed plan of action. That begs the question, what do I mean by a plan? Simply put, a plan is a sequential set of actions designed to achieve a specific objective or leads you to the accomplishment of your primary goal.
Most importantly, creating an effective, efficient plan is a process of deduction. It is not based in creativity or what is sometimes referred to as a “Rectal Estimate”, meaning it was pulled out of your ass!
There are several facets of this process but there are four major components. Facts, Considerations, Deduction and finally Tasks. The aim is to produce a list of Tasks. Not just any tasks, the right tasks. Let me give you an example:
“Sarah and John, dining with their children Emma and Liam, aged 5 and 7, were interrupted by a news report warning of an imminent flood within 3 days due to heavy rainfall. They have an SUV as their primary vehicle. Realizing they were unprepared, anxiety was starting to build knowing they faced a race against time to ensure their family's safety.”
Before you continue reading beyond the scenario above, take a moment to consider what you would do if this was your situation to plan. How would you go about planning for this? Be honest with yourself, I’m not going to check your work, but in order to get the most out of this article, it is vitally important that you take a few minutes to do this!
Let’s continue.
ASSUMPTIONS
What Assumptions can you make from the above? This is important to state because it will lead to more questions. For example, the scenario didn’t mention anything about family pets or if there are any medical or mobility issues for anyone? These assumptions, when stated will help you ask questions that you may not have considered. Another assumption might be that evacuation routs may or may not be open or easily passible in a mass evacuation. You may assume they’re open today, but what about in 3 days time? Can you assume they’ll be open?
CONSTRAINTS
What about Constraints? A constraint can be a limitation or a physical boundary that prevents you from executing a course of action or it reduces your physical mobility as a natural boundary like a Lake or mountain range. Money could be a constraint if you need to get a hotel or extra food.
FACTS
So far we have looked at Assumptions and Constraints because these will have an impact on the rest of your plan and they should be examined before you continue. The next thing to do is look at Facts. In our example, we know the following facts:
CONSIDERATIONS
There are other facts but I want to stick to the basics. Of each of these Facts, what can we Consider for each Fact?
DEDUCTIONS
We need to continue the process and make Deductions from each of these considerations.
TASKS
Summary of Tasks Task:
Prepare individual "go bags" for each child with comfort items, snacks, water, and spare clothes for evacuation.
Task: Perform a vehicle check to ensure readiness for evacuation, including tire pressure, fluids, and emergency equipment.
Task: Develop an emergency preparedness plan outlining evacuation routes, communication methods, and essential supplies to gather.
Task: Monitor weather updates regularly to adjust preparation plans and prioritize tasks before the storm's arrival.
Task: Divide the preparation process into smaller tasks, such as gathering supplies, securing the home, and creating an evacuation plan in case the family is separated when the storm hits.
CONCLUSION
In my perspective, effective planning stands as the cornerstone of preparedness, a sentiment echoed in my recent insights. While the discourse on preparedness often revolves around various skills and resources, the essence of proper planning remains undervalued. From my years of experience, I've come to believe that without a meticulously crafted plan, even the most comprehensive arsenal of skills and supplies can falter in the face of adversity. My emphasis on the primacy of planning underscores the critical need for individuals to cultivate this foundational skill. By prioritizing the art of planning, individuals can construct a resilient framework that anticipates contingencies, allocates resources judiciously, and fosters adaptability in dynamic situations. In essence, effective planning serves as the linchpin of preparedness, empowering individuals to navigate uncertainty with confidence and purpose.
Furthermore, I will be returning to the group of people who asked me to teach military skills, but with a twist. Instead of focusing solely on traditional military tactics, my aim is to mentor each individual through the development of their own personalized natural disaster preparedness plan. Sarah and John's scenario vividly illustrates the importance of such an approach. By proactively preparing for an imminent flood, they exemplify the transformative power of effective planning in confronting adversity. Once each plan is completed, we can derive possible tactical skills that may align with their individualized strategies. This approach not only enhances their ability to respond effectively to potential disasters but also instills a deeper understanding of the importance of proactive planning in mitigating risks and safeguarding against unforeseen challenges. Ultimately, my goal remains steadfast: to equip individuals with the tools and knowledge needed to navigate uncertain terrain with resilience and confidence.