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Bryan Moir's avatar

The Hinge: What Happens After People Wake Up?

In the interests of full disclosure, I am a paid subscriber to Tom’s Substack—although hardly at a level likely to compromise the independence of the Marazzo media empire.

More seriously, I admire much of what Tom has observed, written and acted upon. His decision to inject himself into the Freedom Convoy, and the organizational and negotiating work he undertook between the truckers and various levels of government, demonstrated something more valuable than commentary from the safety of the sidelines. He entered the arena.

That history influences how I read this essay.

Tom is correct that many people cannot be awakened merely by presenting them with more evidence. Some are not suffering from a shortage of information. They are defending an identity, a political tribe, a social position and an understanding of themselves that would be threatened by admitting they were wrong.

There are indeed none so blind as those who will not see.

But I believe Tom’s argument brings us to an even more dangerous question:

What happens after they finally open their eyes?

That is the hinge.

The awakening of a population is not necessarily the beginning of recovery. It may be the moment of greatest danger.

A society experiencing collapse does not awaken calmly, with a pencil, a spreadsheet and a willingness to reconsider first principles. People awaken frightened, angry, humiliated and desperate for an explanation. They want to know what happened, who caused it and who can restore order.

At that point, competing groups rush forward with answers.

Some may genuinely want to restore freedom, accountability and competent government. Others will want to use the crisis to acquire power, settle grievances, punish enemies or replace one centralized system with another under new management.

All will claim to represent renewal.

Not all will be telling the truth.

The people who offer the most comforting path out of crisis may achieve the outcome they want, but that does not mean they will produce the best outcome for the civilization.

A successful political movement understands that most people do not want to be told:

“You were blind. You were foolish. You helped create this disaster.”

It will instead tell them:

“You were deceived. Your suffering is real. None of this is your fault. We know who betrayed you, and we know how to restore what was taken.”

That message allows people to change direction without surrendering their dignity.

But it also creates an opportunity for manipulation.

A path out of humiliation is not necessarily a path toward truth.

Germany in the 1930s remains one of the clearest case studies.

The Treaty of Versailles was not the sole cause of Germany’s collapse, but its punitive terms, reparations and national humiliation created a reservoir of resentment. That grievance was compounded by political instability, hyperinflation, unemployment, the Great Depression, social division and the declining credibility of the Weimar government.

The suffering was real.

The humiliation was real.

The institutional failure was real.

But none of those conditions dictated what Germany had to become.

They created a competition over how the crisis would be explained.

Communists offered class revolution.

Democrats attempted to preserve parliamentary government.

Traditional conservatives offered order and national stability.

The Nazis offered something more emotionally complete: restoration without confession, unity without pluralism, strength without restraint and blame without self-examination.

They took legitimate grievances and attached them to false explanations, conspiracies and scapegoats. They promised to restore national dignity while demanding steadily greater concentrations of power.

German society had awakened to the failure of the existing order.

But awakening did not produce wisdom.

It produced political availability.

The Nazis did not merely tell people that the system had failed. They told them why it had failed, who was responsible and what powers would have to be surrendered to correct it.

Conservative elites then made the fatal mistake of believing they could invite Hitler into government, harness his popularity and control him.

They thought they were using the movement.

The movement was using them.

Once power had been acquired, emergency conditions justified emergency measures. Opposition became obstruction. Criticism became disloyalty. Political enemies became enemies of the nation. Institutions that were supposed to restrain government were captured, bypassed or eliminated.

The promise was national restoration.

The outcome was dictatorship, war and ruin.

That progression gives us a model for the road to serfdom:

First, deterioration is normalized.

The population is told that decline is temporary, unavoidable or imaginary.

Second, warnings are marginalized.

Those who identify the problem are mocked, censored or described as dangerous.

Third, personal pain breaks through denial.

People finally recognize that something is seriously wrong.

Fourth, competing groups fight to explain the crisis.

This is the hinge. Whoever defines the cause gains enormous influence over the remedy.

Fifth, fear creates a demand for decisive action.

The population becomes willing to exchange freedom for promises of stability, justice or revenge.

Sixth, temporary powers become permanent.

The rescuers discover that surrendering power is considerably less attractive than acquiring it.

Finally, the population learns that replacing one ruling class with another is not the same as restoring liberty.

This is why our work of explaining economics, government and institutional power so that a fifth-grader can understand the basics is not an exercise in simplification for its own sake.

People need a framework before the crisis arrives.

When someone promises salvation, they must know enough to ask:

Who receives the additional power?

What limits are placed upon it?

Who independently reviews its use?

How can the public remove those exercising it?

What happens to people who disagree?

Does the remedy disperse authority or concentrate it?

Does it restore individual agency or create dependence?

Are identifiable groups being blamed for problems produced by institutions and policies?

What mechanism returns society to normal once the emergency has passed?

A frightened population without such a framework is vulnerable to the first movement that offers certainty, absolution and an enemy.

Tom is right that we cannot spend our lives trying to awaken people who are determined to remain asleep. We should document, prepare, educate and support those willing to listen.

But we must also prepare for the moment when the sleepers awaken.

It will not be enough to say that we warned them.

It will not be enough to offer a path that preserves their dignity.

We must be prepared to offer an explanation grounded in truth, a recovery that restores freedom and a political model that prevents the rescuers from becoming the next rulers.

Otherwise, all our warnings may be for nothing.

The bread lines may eventually awaken the population, but hunger will not teach people what caused the shortages. Fear will not teach them which leader deserves trust. Anger will not show them which institutions should be rebuilt and which should be dismantled.

Those questions must be considered before the crisis, not improvised in its midst.

The central question is therefore no longer simply:

How do we wake people up?

It is:

When they awaken, who will explain what happened, where will they be led, and what safeguards will prevent their legitimate desire for rescue from becoming the instrument of their next captivity?

Tom has correctly identified the approaching awakening.

We now need to prepare for the hinge.

Ray McGinnis's avatar

Thanks Tom. A sobering reminder that for a significant part of the population unless they personally suffer the consequences of government repression, overreach, they will hold fast to the illusion of the good government. Even if they are in the boxcar they may not yet question authority.

Well spelled out, at your usual standard of excellence. And the story from Poland is a warning to us all in comfortable, cozy, Carney's Canada where 60% (according the polls this past week) believe the economy is firing on all cylinders. So the talking points of politicians at a press conference, or the news anchors, is more persuasive than the shared experience of friends and family of the belt-tightening times we're living in.

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